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Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Yoga poses as Olympic sport: Is that a stretch? (AP)
Monday, February 27, 2012
?Rational Choice Theory? by Phin Upham (Part 16)
Posted February 26th, 2012.
Author?Phin Upham?reviews Rational Choice Theory, its critics, and its applications. Part 16 of this article.?Visit Phin?s website for more information.
Critics of RCT 2.b
But we must be careful to lump even this first class of dissenters into one group.? Some of these, Bell being a clear example, as mentioned above, want to internalize aspects of the human decision making process into rationality theory so that our models can be more realistic and more useful in predicting reality.? This view is neatly stated in footnote 6 of Alchian?s seminal essay ?Uncertainty and Economic Theory? when he says ?Analytical models in all sciences postulate models abstracting from some realities in the belief that derived predictions will still be relevant.? Simplifications are necessary, but continued attempts should be made to introduce more realistic assumptions into a workable model with an increase in generality and detail.?[1]?
There is another sort of criticism that in many ways looks very similar to this sort, and which I group in the same class, but which also differs t a large extent.? It claims that rational choice theory as it stands cannot be coherently understood or applied to the world.? Rather one must slightly weakening at least some of its more obviously false postulates in order for it to correspond to reality.? This tweaking is, again, done in the service of realism.? Some RCT?s, for example, demand that the agent have perfect information ? some objectors to these theories suggest that this is too unrealistic an assumption to allow to stand and still yield accurate results.? Other critics suggest that agents do not have perfectly ordered and complete preferences (Levi, 1980).?
Chu and Chu (1990), for example, were able to show that agents preferences were not complete or transitive by selling K bets to experimenters, for the price they claimed they were worth, exchange K bets for J bets, and then having the experimenters buy back the J bets for the lower prices subjects claimed they were worth.? This money pumping cycle, of course, left the subjects poorer after each round.? If the agents preferences were transitive, then if they preferred A to B and B to C, they would also prefer A to C.? In the Chu and Chu example, though the agents showed intransitive preferences, they quickly adjusted their preferences when the experimenters began to take advantage of their preference ordering.? Bell, Raiffa, and Tversky (Decision Making) suggest that though virtually no subjects behave coherently enough to satisfy the implied behavior which the assumptions of the model generate, the model might be empirically useful because if individuals deviate too far from the behavior posited by the model then others would be able to exploit such behavior through arbitrage since the behavior is not maximizing.[2]? In the long run, therefore, people would remain in an equilibrium state close to the behavior predicted by the model.? Thus ?the normative character of the model is used as an argument to reinforce its descriptive value.?? (DM 15).? This is exactly what we saw with the Chu and Chu example.
[1] Cut section form this part ?What can we take from Alchian?s statement?? He beins with a broad statement asserting a necessary characteristic of all sciences: that they abstract from reality.? In the next sentence he rephrases ?abstract? as ?simplify.?? So, like Cartwright and Friedman he is claiming that 1) all models in Economics (and for Cartwright and Alchien, all models in any science) will not correspond perfectly to reality.? 2) That this lack or correspondence will be due to an abstraction. 3)? That this abstraction can be called a simplification.? But he continues to claim that 4) realistic assumptions ought to be added to this model in order to increase generality and detail.?To unpack point 4) will reveal the nature of an apparently uncontroversial point.? To begin, if the model were merely simplified as Alchien seemed to claim in 3), and if simplified is to have its common definition of cutting out complexity, then it would not make sense to add in this complexity again without some other guidelines (it is ass.? If just does not make sense to purposely ignore aspects (i.e. simplify) that one believes?
Source: http://www.aamprogram.org/reference-and-education/rational-choice-theory-by-phin-upham-part-16/
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Friday, February 24, 2012
Doubt looms in CERN's Einsten contradiction
GENEVA?? Physicists are to run new tests in May after the CERN research institute said on Thursday that its startling findings appearing to show that one of Einstein's fundamental theories was wrong could have been caused by a loose cable.
The CERN lab near Geneva appeared to contradict Albert Einstein's 1905 Special Theory of Relativity last year when they reported that sub-atomic particles called neutrinos could travel fractionally faster than light.
Einstein's theory, which underpins the current view of how the universe works, says that nothing can travel faster than light, and doing so would be like traveling back in time.
CERN said two possible effects had been identified that could have an influence on its neutrino timing measurement during its OPERA experiment. "New measurements with short pulsed beams are scheduled for May," it said in a statement.
One effect concerned an oscillator used to provide the time stamps for GPS (Global Positioning System) synchronizations, which could have led scientists to overestimate the neutrino's time of flight.
However, the other effect appeared to be more significant in the faster-than-light finding of the original OPERA experiment.
"The second concerns the optical fiber connector that brings the external GPS signal to the OPERA master clock, which may not have been functioning correctly when the measurements were taken," said CERN. "If this is the case, it could have led to an underestimate of the time of flight of the neutrinos."
The faster-than-light finding was recorded when 15,000 neutrino beams were pumped over three years from CERN to an underground Italian laboratory at Gran Sasso near Rome.
James Gillies, a spokesman for CERN (the European Organization for Nuclear Research) said late on Wednesday that the result was now in doubt.
"A possible explanation has been found. But we won't know until we have tested it out with a new beam to Gran Sasso," Gillies told Reuters in Geneva.
Physicists on the experiment said when they reported it last September that they had checked and rechecked over many months anything that could have produced a misreading before announcing what they had found.
A second test whose results were announced in November appeared to provide further evidence that neutrinos were traveling faster than light. But many experts remained skeptical of a result that would have overturned one of the fundamental principles of modern physics.
Edward Blucher, chairman of the Department of Physics at the University of Chicago, said the original finding would have been breathtaking if it had been true. As it was, the research inspired many spirited discussions, if few believers.
"I don't think I met anyone who said I bet it's going to be true. I think the people on the experiment worked as carefully as they could and I think they ran out of ideas of what could be wrong and they decided to present it," he said.
"Maybe they should have waited a few more months," he added.
Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.
Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46495869/ns/technology_and_science-science/
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Thursday, February 23, 2012
Jason Alderman: Take 'America Saves Week' to Heart | Finance ...
After four years of coping with a stagnant economy, probably the last thing you want to hear is how important it is to sock away money for a rainy day ? you already know that. But hear me out, just in case.
Those who struggle with long-term unemployment or under-employment often simply don?t have spare cash available to save (although people can be remarkably resourceful, as you?ll see below). Others, worn out by years of being frugal, just want to buy things again, as we saw during the recent blockbuster holiday shopping season.
Even as we wait for economic recovery it?s still good to remember ? or perhaps learn for the first time ? why saving is so vital:
- You could lose your job or see your hours or wages cut. Most financial experts recommend having six to nine months? income saved for emergencies, but even $ 500 gathered $ 10 a week could help bail you out of a sticky situation.
- Medical care, retirement and college tuition far outpace inflation. In fact the average college graduate now carries roughly $ 25,000 in outstanding loans ? debt that can?t be discharged through bankruptcy and has no statute of limitations.
- If you?re approaching or in retirement, your net worth has probably been hammered by plummeting home and retirement account values in recent years, so your cushion may not be as comfortable as you?d once hoped.
- Long-term funding for government-provided benefits like Social Security and Medicare is in doubt, so not only might tax rates rise in the future, but benefits will likely decrease or become more expensive, putting more of the onus on you to pay.
- Thanks to the power of compounding, money saved will grow exponentially faster the sooner you begin saving.
- If nothing else, you can teach your children good financial habits that will serve them well during hard times.
So where can you learn sound savings habits? One great resource is America Saves, a national campaign sponsored by more than 1,000 non-profit, government and corporate organizations. Their goal is to encourage people from all income levels to save money and build personal wealth using their free financial tools, savings services, advice and other resources, including:
- A Personal Wealth Estimator that helps you calculate your current net worth and estimate your future net worth.
- A Weekly Blog from national financial experts on topics such as money management, investment basics, building wealth through home ownership, saving during tax time and getting out of debt.
- Inspirational Saver Stories from people like the Florida woman who started building an emergency fund by saving loose change, having small amounts automatically deducted from her paycheck, and learning how to cut back on impulse buying.
- Links to numerous websites offering financial education materials.
Last year, more than 2,000 organizations, including non-profits, employers, government agencies, educational institutions and unions participated in the fifth annual America Saves Week, reaching millions of Americans through events that included:
- Local banks offered low-fee savings accounts and higher-rate CDs to encourage new savers with small balances.
- Homeownership savings expos around the country.
- Free tax preparation assistance and credit counseling.
- Worldwide Military Saves drives to encourage savings by military families.
This year?s America Saves Week, ?Set a Goal, Make a Plan, Save Automatically,? is slated for Feb. 19-26, 2012.
Here are some great ways to start saving that first $ 500:
- Direct deposit part or all of your federal tax refund into a savings account or savings bond. (Check this IRS web page for details.)
- Avoid overdraft and late fees by regularly monitoring your bank and credit card accounts.
- Brown-bag it to work more often. If you saved $ 5 a week, you?d be half-way there.
- Kick bad habits. Smoking a pack of cigarettes a day might cost $ 2,000-plus a year.
- If you have low-deductible homeowners, renters or auto insurance, consider raising the deductible to $ 500 or $ 1,000. Many save 15 to 30 percent or more on their premiums.
- Visit Energy Star for tips on reducing home energy consumption. For example, each degree you lower your thermostat saves up to 3 percent on your heating bill.
- If you get a raise, continue living on your old salary and either direct deposit the increase or use it to pay down interest-bearing debt.
For more budgeting ideas, see my previous blog, Feeling the Pinch? Try These Expense-Trimming Tips. And, if you need help creating a budget, see my blog, With Budgeting, Slow and Steady Wins the Race.
Saving can be a tough habit to start, but once you?re hooked, you?ll never go back.
This article is intended to provide general information and should not be considered legal, tax or financial advice. It?s always a good idea to consult a legal, tax or financial advisor for specific information on how certain laws apply to you and about your individual financial situation.
To participate in a free, online Financial Literacy and Education Summit on April 23, 2012, go to Practical Money Skills.
From:The Blog
Source: http://financeinternational.info/2012/02/23/jason-alderman-take-america-saves-week-to-heart/
Monday, February 20, 2012
Bomb kills 8 anti-Taliban tribesmen in Pakistan (AP)
AP - A bomb planted at a checkpoint manned by members of a Pakistani militia fighting a radical group similar to the Taliban exploded Sunday and killed eight militia members in northwest Pakistan, a government official said.
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Saturday, February 18, 2012
Skin Cancer ? Blog Archive ? Skin cancer and tanning?
This entry was posted on Friday, February 17th, 2012 at 11:40 am and is filed under Skin Cancer. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
There are currently 3,196 posts and 0 comments, contained within 4 categories.
Source: http://hadrialslullaby.com/2012/02/17/skin-cancer-and-tanning/
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Friday, February 17, 2012
How to Add Streaming Audio to Blog?
According to Verisign, the global registrar for all websites ending with .com, there are around 180 million domains registered all over the world as on April of 2009. Whether all of them are active and alive with relevant content cannot be neither confirmed or denied and it is fairly safe to assume that a considerable portion of these are either parked, forwarded or just kept in safe custody by companies to avoid abuse of their reputed brands as well as hard earned goodwill. Out of this, around 70 million are blogs which to some extent, can be considered as alive if not updated on regular basis. So if you are the proud owner of a blog like me, then we are two among this 70 million or proverbially, two drops in an ocean.
Some blog for fun, some to scam, companies blog to spread brand awareness, some want to showcase their talent and others to make a living.
Whatever may the purpose be, your blog should have to stand out from the crowd in delivering the content. Adding streaming audio to your blog is one way you can deliver content differently. By virtue of their dynamic nature, blogs are very good at getting indexed faster by search engines rather than their static counterparts. There is a lot of software out in the internet that claims to stream audio but, a few of them are in fact, capable of doing it. Most software simply links to a remote audio file which is exactly NOT how streaming audio works.
Contrary to conventional perception, it is the process that undergoes in creating compressed encoded files that is difficult rather than embedding it to a specific part of your website. Making streaming audio practical and accessible to all users depends upon the underlying format/program.
Audio files can be encoded in Java as well as flash with both of them having their own ups and downs. However, the crowd favorite seems to be flash based streaming audio by virtue of its availability in 94 percent of computers worldwide that are connected to the internet. The element of flexibility, interactivity through a vast selection of customizable players that can be branded to seamlessly blend with the websites that hosts them also tilts choice towards flash based streaming audio. The compressed encoded files are uploaded to your web hosting account via ftp and in the case of blogs, is referenced from there into the post or page where you want the audio player to appear. Some software will only let you to reference files from the same server whereas others allow you to reference files from anywhere over the internet. So before you buy the appropriate streaming audio software, do some math on not only your present requirements but about audio streaming applications that may arise in the near and foreseeable future.
The author of this article is a freelance ghost writer specializing in search engine vulnerable and keyword optimized web content for rational and reasonable rates. He is available for custom and tailor-made assignments and please feel free to contact him at http://www.jimmy.gs/contact-me/whereabouts/
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